The 20% Hormuz fee lasted 24 hours. These four markets show why it could not survive – and why the governance dispute underneath it has not gone away: cargo economics, vessel behaviour, freight pricing and insurance cover.
A week after the deal, fertiliser is falling but not for the reasons you’d expect, Asia is pulling LNG cargoes away from Europe, Iran is discounting aggressively into China and the US sanctions window is open but barely used. The reopening looks cleaner from a distance than it does on the ground.
When ships take the long way round, the cost doesn’t stop at the fuel tank. It moves through freight rates, inventory buffers and refinery crude slates. Four markets show where it’s showing up.
China’s absence isn’t one signal. It shows up across the machinery of the oil market – in margins, in refinery run rates, in Saudi pricing and in freight. Each of these signals tells part of the story. Together they answer one question: is China still absent, or is the missing buyer starting to come back?
For most of the past three months, this section has tracked how the supply shock was being transmitted – through tankers, insurance, inventories and product markets. This week it turns the crisis around. The demand side is starting to leave fingerprints too. Not in one clean way. In petrochemical run cuts, LPG allocation orders, aviation distortion and a forward curve that is already pricing recovery before demand recovery has been proven.
Molecule markets are showing direct stress: scarcity, elevated margins and no near-term substitute. Electric markets are showing something different: partial insulation, price divergence and rising demand for flexibility. That is the split to watch this week.
The ceasefire will feel like relief. The engineer looking at the damage to trains 3 and 7 at Ras Laffan will know better. This issue is about the shortage that survives the war – and why the market hasn't priced it yet.
