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Brent crude

This week in energy

US Iran blockade

+5

This week in energy

Brent was trading around $70 in the post-MoU recovery phase. This morning, it is back near $85. The "wartime premium has disappeared" story lasted about ten days. What replaced it is familiar – and, according to at least one analyst, more dangerous than the first time.

LockSimple

Jul 16, 2026

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3 min read

The shock premium came back

Brent crude

+5

The shock premium came back

Brent’s first-session reaction to major Hormuz escalations shows how the shock premium was shrinking – until Monday reversed the pattern.

LockSimple

Jul 16, 2026

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1 min read

The guardian’s toll

US Iran blockade

+4

The guardian’s toll

For months, the oil market watched Hormuz for signs that Iran would close the Strait. This week, the US declared itself the corridor’s guardian – and sent a bill. It lasted 24 hours. What it revealed will last longer.

LockSimple

Jul 16, 2026

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6 min read

This week in energy

Hormuz threat level

+5

This week in energy

A loaded LNG carrier caught fire near Hormuz on Tuesday. By Wednesday, Trump had declared the ceasefire over at the NATO summit, the US had struck more than 80 Iranian targets, Iran had targeted US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, maritime threat levels had been raised and Brent was back near $78.

LockSimple

Jul 9, 2026

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3 min read

This week in energy

Brent crude

+3

This week in energy

Brent has fallen below where it was trading on 27 February – the day before the war began. The quarterly decline is the worst since 2020. Doha talks are ongoing. The market has priced a recovery. The question is whether the recovery matches what’s been priced.

LockSimple

Jul 2, 2026

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3 min read

The shrinking shock premium

Brent crude

+4

The shrinking shock premium

Brent’s immediate reaction to major Hormuz escalation events. The upside shock premium has faded across the crisis – from a double-digit spike in February to a barely visible move this weekend.

LockSimple

Jul 2, 2026

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1 min read

The market that didn’t blink

Hormuz ceasefire

+4

The market that didn’t blink

A tanker was hit. US military sites were targeted. Washington and Tehran traded threats. Brent barely moved. This week’s question isn’t whether Hormuz is open. It’s what would actually move this market.

LockSimple

Jul 2, 2026

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4 min read

Brent went quiet. Freight didn’t.

Brent crude

+4

Brent went quiet. Freight didn’t.

Brent crude vs Oman-China VLCC freight rate, indexed to 100 at MOU signing (June 17, 2026). The chart shows the grey zone in market form.

LockSimple

Jun 25, 2026

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1 min read

This week in energy

Energy radar

+5

This week in energy

Three Saudi-flagged supertankers carrying 6 million barrels of crude have exited the Strait of Hormuz. The interim deal has been signed. Brent is back below $80. The physical reopening has begun – but the paper market is already pricing a recovery the physical system has not yet delivered.

LockSimple

Jun 18, 2026

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3 min read

What the deal has – and hasn’t – moved

Brent crude

+4

What the deal has – and hasn’t – moved

The ceasefire has repriced crude, gas and shipping. Not equally, not cleanly and not in ways that all point toward a clean recovery.

LockSimple

Jun 18, 2026

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3 min read

The market that prices risk hasn’t moved

Brent crude

+5

The market that prices risk hasn’t moved

Brent has fallen into the low-$80s on ceasefire optimism. War-risk insurance has not followed it down. That is the signal.

LockSimple

Jun 18, 2026

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1 min read

This week in energy

Brent crude

+3

This week in energy

Five signals that moved the story this week – and what they mean.

LockSimple

Mar 26, 2026

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3 min read

Global Energy Dynamics

Global Energy Dynamics delivers structured, independent intelligence on global energy markets, helping professionals stay ahead of emerging trends.

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