Signal

Brent crude

The shock premium came back

Brent’s first-session reaction to major Hormuz escalations shows how the shock premium was shrinking – until Monday reversed the pattern.

Jul 16, 2026

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1 min read

Signal

Brent noticed. Gas reacted

The same event produced two different market answers. Both were rational. One told the more useful story about where Hormuz risk actually lives.

Jul 9, 2026

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1 min read

Brent crude

The shrinking shock premium

Brent’s immediate reaction to major Hormuz escalation events. The upside shock premium has faded across the crisis – from a double-digit spike in February to a barely visible move this weekend.

Jul 2, 2026

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1 min read

Brent crude

Brent went quiet. Freight didn’t.

Brent crude vs Oman-China VLCC freight rate, indexed to 100 at MOU signing (June 17, 2026). The chart shows the grey zone in market form.

Jun 25, 2026

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1 min read

Brent crude

The market that prices risk hasn’t moved

Brent has fallen into the low-$80s on ceasefire optimism. War-risk insurance has not followed it down. That is the signal.

Jun 18, 2026

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1 min read

Shipping

Fujairah’s bunker fuel collapse

Fujairah monthly marine fuel sales, cubic metres – 2025 average vs February–April 2026. One number shows where the marine fuel system is under strain.

Jun 11, 2026

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2 min read

Missing importer

China bought the buffer. Now it’s spending it.

China’s seaborne crude imports have fallen by nearly half since February. Its above-ground crude inventories hit a record in early May and have been declining since. The chart shows both. Together, they explain why the 2026 oil crisis has not yet bitten as hard as the supply shock implied.

Jun 4, 2026

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1 min read

Demand destruction

The demand that went missing

Before the war, the IEA expected global oil demand to grow by 850,000 barrels per day in 2026. Its May Oil Market Report now expects demand to contract by 420,000 barrels per day. That 1.3 million barrel-per-day swing is the signal.

May 28, 2026

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1 min read

Energy transition

The split: electricity demand keeps climbing as oil demand slows

Since 2019, global electricity demand and global oil demand have moved onto different paths. The Hormuz crisis did not create that divergence. It exposed why it matters.

May 21, 2026

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1 min read

Physical markets

The shortage is now compounding at 100 million barrels a week

Every additional week of disrupted Hormuz flows deepens a deficit that will have to be physically rebuilt – even after a ceasefire.

May 14, 2026

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1 min read

Buffer depletion

The line that matters

The oil market is still being read through price. But price is not the constraint right now. Inventories are.

Apr 30, 2026

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2 min read

Oil price spread

The gap that tells you more than the price

The spread between physical and paper oil prices has become the most honest signal in the market. Here is what it is saying right now – and what to watch for next.

Apr 23, 2026

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2 min read

Demand destruction

The gap the market has to close

Before the war, the world ran on 107 million barrels of oil per day. It is now running on 97 million. This section maps the gap between those two numbers – and what is currently bridging it.

Apr 16, 2026

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1 min read

Maritime markets

What the insurance market knows that the oil price doesn't

War risk premiums for Hormuz transits rose from 0.2% of hull value before the war to as high as 10% at the peak. Analysts expect them to settle at 1–2% post-ceasefire – five to ten times pre-war levels, permanently. The oil price has moved on. The insurance market hasn't.

Apr 9, 2026

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4 min read

JKM

What the market thinks will happen next

The JKM forward curve – the LNG price that Asian buyers pay – shows the market pricing near-complete recovery of Qatari supply by Q2 2027.

Apr 2, 2026

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2 min read

BloombergNEF

Two lines, two timelines

Oil is back above $100 a barrel. Battery costs have fallen below $100 per kilowatt-hour.

Mar 26, 2026

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1 min read

Shipping

The number that shut the Strait

The Strait wasn't shut by force. It was shut by this chart.

Mar 19, 2026

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2 min read

Shipping

One facility. One strait. One system.

The US share looks larger than Qatar’s.

Mar 12, 2026

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2 min read

Signal

The shock premium came back

Brent noticed. Gas reacted

The shrinking shock premium

Brent went quiet. Freight didn’t.

The market that prices risk hasn’t moved

Fujairah’s bunker fuel collapse

China bought the buffer. Now it’s spending it.

The demand that went missing

The split: electricity demand keeps climbing as oil demand slows

The shortage is now compounding at 100 million barrels a week

The line that matters

The gap that tells you more than the price

The gap the market has to close

What the insurance market knows that the oil price doesn't

What the market thinks will happen next

Two lines, two timelines

The number that shut the Strait

One facility. One strait. One system.

Global Energy Dynamics