Three Saudi-flagged supertankers carrying 6 million barrels of crude have exited the Strait of Hormuz. The interim deal has been signed. Brent is back below $80. The physical reopening has begun – but the paper market is already pricing a recovery the physical system has not yet delivered.
That is the widely reported estimate for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen physically. The MOU itself guarantees toll-free passage for 60 days – but the physical constraints that 30 days cannot resolve are a different question entirely.
These are not companies that benefit from the ceasefire. They are companies whose reported data may provide early indications of whether the recovery is materialising in practice.
The market is pricing a resolution. This section tracks what the physical system is actually doing — starting with the single number that tells you more than any oil price move.
