This week in energy

Policy

Iraq's oil minister confirmed on Tuesday that Baghdad is in direct contact with Iran to negotiate passage for its oil tankers through the Strait – a rare public acknowledgement of active diplomacy on the closure. Whether it leads anywhere is unclear. For now, it is the only ministerial-level negotiation on record.

Corporate

QatarEnergy has delayed its North Field East LNG expansion to at least 2027, pushing back 32 million tonnes per year of new production capacity that was expected to begin easing global gas markets this year. Not only is current Qatari supply offline — the replacement supply has just moved further out.

Data

EU gas storage exited winter below 30% capacity – the lowest level in five years – with the refill season now beginning without Qatari LNG. What was already a tight injection window is now a structurally more expensive one.

Market

The IEA's 400 million barrel release – the largest in its history – has capped but not removed the oil price premium, with Brent trading near $97–103 this week after peaking close to $120. At roughly 1.4 million barrels per day, the US contribution offsets only a fraction of the disrupted supply.

Disruption

Iran struck the UAE's Shah gas field and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone over the weekend, briefly closing Dubai International Airport after a drone hit a nearby fuel tank. The shift from targeting shipping to targeting fixed energy infrastructure marks a meaningful escalation in the conflict.